Half a year outpaces the entire previous year, but nobody agrees on the count

In the first half of 2026, between 19,100 and just over 22,000 humanoid robots were delivered worldwide, depending on which analysis firm you ask. That is roughly three times as many as a year earlier and already more than in the entire year 2025. Over 97 percent come from Chinese manufacturers, with AgiBot and Unitree alone accounting for three-quarters of the global market.

The market has thus reorganized itself in six months: if you want to buy humanoids in volume, you buy from China. The only catch is how far the numbers diverge. Chinese industry associations report 30,000 to 40,000 units, and analysts cannot even agree on whether the majority of robots are actually working or merely being demonstrated.

The lower figure comes from Smart Analytics Global, a California-based market researcher, which counts 19,100 units for the first half, compared to 5,100 in the same period the previous year. What is particularly striking is the order at the top. AgiBot from Shanghai has overtaken Unitree and comes in at around 8,400 robots and 44 percent market share, Unitree at 5,900 units and 31 percent. After that, things thin out quickly: Galbot with around 900 wheeled units, UBTech with approximately 700, and Leju with around 600. Counterpoint Research chimed in on August 20 and comes up with over 22,000 robots, with a similar ranking but consistently higher values per manufacturer. The difference is not a calculation error. Each firm sets its own definition of what counts—whether an order, a delivery to a dealer, or a device running at a customer's location.

The figures from China are even higher. The Humanoid Robot Scene Application Alliance reports over 30,000 units from Chinese manufacturers alone, while the Committee of 100 for Humanoid Robotics and Embodied Intelligence spoke of more than 40,000 at a conference in August. Such associations have an obvious interest in large numbers, and an independent statistic like the one the IFR global association has maintained for industrial robots for decades simply does not yet exist for humanoids. For investors, this is more than a footnote. Unitree is raising around 6.1 billion yuan with its Shanghai stock listing, and the valuation lives on the expectation that these curves will continue in this manner.

Even more uncomfortable is the dispute over what the machines actually do. Smart Analytics sees over 70 percent of delivered robots in industry and trade, primarily in manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing, compared to around half in the previous year. Counterpoint reaches the opposite conclusion: over 60 percent go to entertainment, performances, data collection, and research. Both can be correct, depending on how you classify a humanoid standing in a factory hall collecting training data. For 2025, Omdia had estimated the share of devices in actual productive use at around ten percent. That it should have increased sevenfold in half a year is dubious.

When it comes to forecasts for the full year, opinions diverge less than one might expect. Counterpoint expects over 50,000 units, Smart Analytics around 60,000 and industry revenue of 1.6 billion dollars, which yields an average price of just under 27,000 dollars per robot. The Chinese alliance expects over 85,000 in its own country alone. By 2030, Smart Analytics forecasts 500,000 annually. What is also revealing is the demand side: approximately 85 percent of robots stay in China. The rest of the world therefore does not even share every sixth humanoid.

For buyers in Switzerland, the situation is thus clearer than it was in spring. Tesla, Figure, and Agility continue to deliver in the hundreds and primarily to their own facilities or close partners; in significant quantities, only Chinese devices can be freely ordered. Since the US stopped allowing new robots from China into the country, Europe is increasingly coming into focus as an open market for manufacturers from Shanghai and Hangzhou. This should ease prices and delivery times here. The open questions shift instead to service, spare parts, and data security, as the Bluetooth vulnerability in the Unitree G1 revealed at the end of August showed. Anyone procuring a humanoid today should therefore look less at manufacturers' unit numbers than at who will still service it in three years.